Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Why Andrew Bogut Must Stay Healthy This Season


Jason O. Watson/US Presswire

Highway robbery. That's the crime that the Golden State Warriors committed against the  Milwaukee Bucks in March of this year.

Trading an undersized shooting guard for a top-5 NBA center was an absolute no-brainier, and I still wonder what Milwaukee was thinking when they agreed to the deal. Didn't they realize that playing two shoot-first guards together wasn't going to work (Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry), yet they somehow succumbed to the duo of Ellis and Brandon Jennings?

Anyway, enough of that. What I'm trying to say is, the Warriors absolutely stole Andrew Bogut from the Bucks, and it is up to Bogut to make his former team pay.

The first step is to have Bogut stay healthy and play 75-82 games of the season. You have to believe that the Bucks were tired of Bogut's nagging and recurring injuries, and they jumped at the opportunity to trade him.

We have to trust that Bogut stays injury-free throughout the year, because without him, the new-look Warriors will be just like the Warriors of old.

Don't believe me? Take a look at their depth chart and see for yourself:

PG - Stephen Curry, Jarrett Jack, Charles Jenkins
SG- Klay Thompson, Brandon Rush, Kent Bazemore
SF - Harrison Barnes, Richard Jefferson, Draymond Green
PF - David Lee, Carl Landry
C - Andrew Bogut, Festus Ezeli, Jeremy Tyler, Andris Biedrins

Ask yourself the question, "If the starter goes down, is there a backup good enough to carry the load?".
For the most part, the answer is yes. Jack, Rush, Jefferson, and Landry are all experienced and veteran players who have been starters at one point or another in their careers.

But how about the center? What if Bogut blows out a knee or dislocates an elbow? Your options are the rookie Festus Ezeli, the unproven Jeremy Tyler, and last and certainly least, the woeful Andris Biedrins.

Who do you turn to? Ezeli is a terrific defensive presence, but needs dramatic improvement on his offensive game. Of the small sample size that we saw of Tyler last season, he is still extremely raw and would be hard to thrust into that starting role. And then there's Andris Biedrins, whose life and career is tumbling right in front of our eyes (when's the last time you saw a man making $9 million be charged with tax evasion?). In other words, Biedrins is not going to be your starter.

What they will probably do is have Landry start at power forward, and Lee will slide over to center. That is a recipe for disaster, because as good a rebounder as David Lee is, he will get swallowed up by bigger opponents and the Warriors will be faced with the "rebounding and defending" problem once again. At that point, you might as well as kiss their playoff chances goodbye, and boo Joe Lacob even louder the next time he comes out.

Then there's the second step, which is pivotal as well. Assuming that Bogut stays healthy and is their starting center, will he produce at the high level that the Warriors need him to? Will numerous injuries have slowed him down?

When healthy, Bogut has averaged a double-double in points and rebounds, and is no doubt a top-5 NBA center.

But keep in mind that he has spent his entire career in Milwaukee, so many people are unaware of what this guy can do. Over in Oakland, Bogut will be counted onto be the missing piece that gets this team to the postseason, and that's a pretty big label to put on him. The Warriors haven't had a productive and consistent center since Robert Parrish in the seventies (they traded him to the Celtics for a pile of garbage), so you can bet that people will be hyped up about Andrew Bogut.

Of course, there's a chance that none of this happens. If Bogut stays healthy and plays like he has throughout his career, then the Golden State Warriors might actually have a pretty good starting center. And that sounds too good to be true.




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