Weekly Rankings, Iowa No. 1

Not too many changes this week. We've got two 8-0 teams, but Iowa is way ahead of Alabama right now. Why? It's not because the computer isn't factoring in their close calls - my program does contain margin of victory. So let's take a look at what they've each done, going from their best win to worse.

Iowa: @ Penn St (187.16) 21-10, vs Arizona (123.44) 27-17, @ Wisconsin (94.56) 20-10, vs Michigan (58.62) 30-28
Bama: v VA Tech (137.10) 34-24, vs S Carolina (126.39) 20-6, @ Ole Miss (82.29) 22-3, @ Kentucky (48.37) 38-20

Iowa: @ Iowa St (58.54) 35-3, @ Michigan St (12.30) 15-13, vs Arkansas St (-60.94) 24-21, vs N Iowa (I-AA) 17-16
Bama: vs Arkansas (-10.03) 35-7, vs Tennessee (-22.71) 12-10, vs Fla Intl (-154.44) 40-14, vs N Texas (-154.88) 53-7

(Continue to The National Championship Issue)

Read more »

Expectations vs. the Spread

Let's talk more about expectations, specifically how teams have done against the spread this decade.

The first thing to realize, if you don't already, is that the spread is NOT a measure of how much Vegas thinks a team is going to win or lose by. It is a measure of what Vegas thinks the betting public thinks a team is going to win or lose by. Their goal is to get the number of bets on either side of the line as close to equal as they can, thereby ensuring that they'll win as much as they lose, making a profit on the vig they charge to place the bets. So it's in their best interest to know not only how good teams are and how they match up, but more importantly what the betting public thinks of how good teams are and how they match up.

So the spread can be seen as the mean, or middle, of public expectation. Half the people think a team will beat the spread, the other half don't. Looking at how teams have performed against these expectations can give us a good idea into whether they're truly underrated, overrated, or rated just about right.

(Continue to The National Championship Issue)

Read more »

Coaches Poll Irregularities

It's been a big story this week - the Coaches and Harris polls have a bunch of teams ranked ahead of teams that beat them. Penn State ahead of Iowa, Oklahoma State ahead of Houston, etc. I think most everyone agrees that these polls have major, serious flaws that cut right to the heart of the credibility of the BCS. But there's more to this story and these numbers, as usual. Let's add some context cake to the rage-flavored frosting, shall we? (The statistics that follow all track the Coaches rankings of Week 4 in each of the BCS seasons. So basically through September.)

	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09
# of undefeated Top 25 teams	16	17	17	20	17	20	19	15	14	20	18	12
# of one-loss Top 25 teams	9	8	8	5	8	5	6	10	11	6	7	13

No team with two losses has ever been ranked in the Top 25 in week 4 in the BCS era. And this year, there are more one-loss teams in the poll at this time than ever. What's important about this is that it means that there's more opportunities for teams to be ranked ahead of teams that beat them. But just because something is available doesn't mean it has to be taken, right? Right. The Coaches aren't forced to rank teams that lost higher. But the next important thing to realize is that this isn't the first time they've done so: this has happened every single year of the BCS (except 2007).

(Continue to The National Championship Issue)

Read more »

Week 4 Predictions

North Carolina @ Georgia Tech (-2.5)

The Yellow Jackets are at 6000rpm in 3rd gear, and they don't seem to be progressing. The Tar Heels have been on the easier course so far, but their offense has sputtered at times too...

The Call: North Carolina by 7
_________________________________

South Florida @ Florida St (-14)

The Bulls have destroyed Wofford, Western Kentucky, and Charleston Southern so far this year, so we don't know a whole lot about them. Now that seven-year starting QB Matt Groethe is out, we know even less. But that's okay - we know the Seminoles hung with Miami, had a close call against Jacksonville St, and crushed BYU. 2 out of 3 isn't bad.

The Call: Florida State by 21
_________________________________

Fresno State @ Cincinnati (-16.5)

The Bearcats are beating (what should be) good teams, while the Bulldogs are getting beaten by (what should be) good teams. Like a glove.

The Call: Cincinnati by 18

(Continue to The National Championship Issue)

Read more »

Tressel Ball vs. Win Forever

Which is worse for a coach's reputation: losing the big games, or losing the small games?

That's not rhetorical - there is an answer, as we'll soon see.

Of course the topic relates to Jim Tressel and Pete Carroll. During the last two weeks we’ve seen continuations of trends that many thought would end this year. Ohio State lost (yet again) to a top-five opponent, and USC lost (yet again) to an unranked conference foe. There has been a lot of vitrol flung at Tressel and Carroll in the last few days, everything from deconstructing why Tressel is a bad tactician, to dissecting why LA makes Carroll a bad coach, to the ever entertaining analysis by MS Paint. So instead of piling it on, let's be constructive and figure out how these two can get out of the holes they've dug. We'll start by putting their coaching of the last few years into context.

Along with Carroll and Tressel at the top of the coaching food chain are Urban Meyer, Mack Brown, and Bob Stoops. Most folks would have these five in some order at the top of their list of current best coaches, so let’s take a look at the five’s records and other miscellaneous stats over the six seasons.

(Continue to The National Championship Issue)

Read more »

College Football: Week 3 Rankings

Hmmm... four conferences bunched at the top, all within 2.5 points of each other. But this is still week 3 - let's examine these to see if those points are gonna get higher or lower.

#1 SEC: A perfect weekend for the SEC - 6-0 in nonconf play. But there was probably only one decent win among them, Auburn over West Virginia. The rest were another win over the BigEast, 3 wins over the SunBelt, and a win over a I-AA cupcake. Their BCS opponents (West Virginia, Louisville, UCLA, NC State, Virginia Tech, & Washington) will probably cancel each other out, while their nonconf opponents and I-AA cupcakes will probably drag them down a bit as the season goes on.

#2 Big10: They took a bit of a hit this week, going 6-4 against so-so competition. Some of their losses don't look to bad, Cal & Notre Dame, but none of their wins look like they'll help in the long run. Overall, they're 5-6 against BCS teams, which isn't great. The only decent wins were over Notre Dame and proably Air Force, though some of their losses (USC, Oregon, Cal) aren't too bad. The cupcakes & losses to Northern Illinois and Central Michigan are gonna hurt.

#3 BigEast: A solid 6-2 this week with wins over Baylor & Oregon State which may help. The loss to Auburn won't be too bad, but losing to Kentucky could bring them down. The conference is perfect against the cupcakes & non-BCS teams, going 13-0 (of which only the win over East Carolina might be good), but they're only 3-5 against BCS teams. Their losses to Penn State, Auburn, & North Carolina won't be too bad, but Minnesota could hurt.

(Continue to The National Championship Issue)

Read more »

The Founding Fathers and BCS

I received a letter from Specialist Rich Stowell the other day that led to the idea for this post. Rich's take on the BCS and what some of the founding fathers would have thought about it is quite interesting. My vision of the way things might have gone is a bit different...

	A crowded bar in Boston.
	George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Franklin, John Adams, and Alexander Hamilton sit around a table eating and drinking.
Washington:	“Gentlemen, now that we’ve shed the yoke of tyranny, it’s time to talk about another pressing matter important to this new country of ours – devising a better way to figure out which of our states is the yearly champion.”
Franklin:	“Hear hear!”

(Continue to The National Championship Issue)

Read more »

Week 2 Predictions

Well, the good news is that it'd be really hard for me to do worse than last week.
_________________________________

North Carolina @ Connecticut (+4.5)

The Huskies will be looking for some revenge after getting pasted in Chapel Hill last year. But the Tar Heels are still moving up and should be able to get it done.

The Call: North Carolina by 10
_________________________________

Iowa (-6.5) @ Iowa State

Iowa State had had the Hawkeyes number when this has seemed like a mismatch in past years. But Iowa got a huge scare last weekend and should come out fired up and more focused.

The Call: Iowa by 7
_________________________________

Fresno State @ Wisconsin (-9.5)

You know, I really shouldn't do this. It's a bad idea.

The Call: Fresno State by 4

(Continue to The National Championship Issue)

Read more »