Last-Minute NFL Picks

The combination of Halloween in the Big Apple and the end of Daylight's Savings Time got me all messed up last night and this morning, so this is truly a last-minute posting. With that being said, and having gone 10-3 again last week (56-28 overall so far) I am just going to make my picks without any comments this time:

Houston at Buffalo

Texans 28, Bills 13

Cleveland at Chicago

Bears 31, Browns 17

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NFL's Separation Anxiety

Here we are in Week 7 and it is becoming more and more clear which teams are legitimate Super Bowl contenders and which ones are out and out pretenders.

So, let's see who is going to make a statement this time around and who's going to take a step backwards in the wrong direction, with a quick reminder that the Guru is now 46-25 after going 9-5 last week:

Green Bay at Cleveland -- This one should be an easy one to pick as the Browns can't seem to get out of their own way. So why do I get a strange feeling that we could be looking at a repeat of last week's Eagles-Raiders upset? Nah. Aaron Rodgers is coming into his own and with Ahman Green back in a Packers jersey to give Ryan Grant some help, Green Bay will keep pace in the NFC playoff race, although it will be closer than it should be.

Packers 23, Browns 21

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More Compelling Games in Week 6

With the Dolphins on their bye week, the Guru gets to pick every game for the second straight week as I made an exception last week due to the gravity of that Monday Night game between the Jets and Dolphins.

[Quick interlude: Talk about an instant classic! Five lead changes in the fourth quarter? Three touchdowns in that quarter by Miami matching the total given up by the Jets defense in the previous four games? A 130.4 passer rating for second-year Dolphins QB Chad Henne in just his second NFL start? The Wildcat waltzing up and down the field on a Rex Ryan defense? All I can say is it was one of those memorable games those of us in the media will be talking about for years to come.]

Now back to regularly scheduled program:

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No-Huddle Predictions

The Guru is going to try something different today, and the main reason is because we are less than three hours away from kickoff of the 1 p.m. games. So this is my version of the no-huddle offense, and I'm even going to break protocol this one time when it comes to the Dolphins.

Without any further delay, let's get the ball rolling:

Cleveland at Buffalo -- Ugh. Two teams headed in the same direction -- DOWN. Playing at home gives the Bills the edge in this never-to-be-seen-in-prime time match up.

Bills 16, Browns 13

Dallas at Kansas City -- Back-to-back losses to two AFC West non-juggernauts? Not in the cards for the Cowboys. Romo will snap out of it and DeMarcus Ware will make Matt Cassel wish he never left New England.

Cowboys 31, Chiefs 7

Minnesota at St. Louis -- Trap game? I think not. This one could get REAL ugly.

Vikings 45, Rams 14

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NFL Sensory Overload

What an incredibly busy two weeks these have been, with cross-country flights, short weeks coming off and leading up to Monday Night Football games and a season-ending injury to the 2008 runner-up for NFL MVP.

So with that being said, this mid-week post will be a lot shorter than my usual posts, and I will start out by sharing the results of my Week 4 picks. I went 10-3 on the week, missing the Denver upset of Dallas, the Jacksonville win over Tennessee and the Patriots holding off the Ravens at home. For the season the NFL Guru is 28-15 for winning percentage of .651, and that is without any picks in Week 1 as I simply previewed each team, division and conference.

Now for a few more quick observations and comments:

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Nearing the End of First Quarter

So much can be learned about your NFL team by the end of Week 4 because that means there are only three quarters of the season remaining.

When I was a beat writer covering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the early part of the Jon Gruden Era, I can remember Coach Gruden using that quarters analogy quite often in order to keep his team on an even plane. Even if they were winless at the end of the first month, he would say something like, "The first quarter is behind us. If we can turn things around in the second quarter then there's still the second half of the season left for us to salvage something."

Back in 2004, the Bucs lost their first four games but bounced back to win five of their next eight in the second and third quarters. They sat at 5-7 with four games remaining and still were alive for a playoff berth, but in that all-important fourth quarter they went 0-4 to finish 5-11.

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Never Too Early for Must Wins

Here we are in Week 3 of the NFL season and already there are a handful of teams in precarious situations. Some of them were expected to be where they are while others are not at all where they wanted to be.

And while the tired cliche "Every game is a must-win," has been repeated around the league, it actually holds true in more than one case -- including the game I will be at tomorrow out here in beautiful San Diego between the Chargers and the Miami Dolphins.

So let's go down the list, shall we? Last week was the first time I have tried my hand at picking games and I have to say going 8-7 was a pleasant surprise. Remember, because of my affiliation with the Dolphins I cannot weigh in with a prediction on their game.

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Early Separation Already Evident

Two weeks into the 2009 NFL season there already are a handful of teams beginning to separate from the pack inside their division and conference -- and it's not the usual suspects in every case. I'll break down both conferences over the next two days, beginning with the AFC.

Let's start in the AFC East, where everybody's preseason favorites to represent the conference in Super Bowl XLIV, the New England Patriots, are one poor Leodis McKelvin decision away from joining the Miami Dolphins in the basement at 0-2. The New York Jets are the ones in control at the top after back-to-back gutsy performances by rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. Their impressive upset of the Pats at Gillette Stadium, which used to be one of the hardest places for a road team to win, was reminiscent of what Miami did a year ago on the same field en route to dethroning New England as AFC East champs. This week's home game against a very good Tennessee Titans team will go a long way in determining whether or not these Jets are true contenders or pretenders.

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Week 2 Could Be a Snoozer

With less than three hours to go before kickoff of the 1 p.m. games and this being a rare Sunday when the NFL Guru actually can kick back and watch all of the games since the Dolphins play tomorrow night, let's dive right into some bonus analysis.

One quick glance at the schedule reveals six potential blowouts, four nondescript games and five games that on paper should be compelling. That is definitely not music to the ears of television networks, although ESPN and NBC have two of the games I believe will be entertaining.

Unfortunately for those of us who enjoy a full day of football that keeps our eyes glued to the television if we're not actually at the stadium, seven of the nine games kicking off at 1 are likely to be snoozers. So if you haven't played golf in a while or gotten to the beach on a Sunday, this might be the day to do it, and then make sure you are back for the 4 p.m. games and the Sunday night showdown in Dallas between the Cowboys and the Giants.

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Will AFC Be Superior Again?

Yesterday I broke down the NFC, and now that I am inside the Georgia Dome about 90 minutes from kickoff between the Atlanta Falcons and Miami Dolphins, I'll have to be a little faster with my AFC breakdown.

So without any further delay:

The easy path to take with the AFC East is to anoint the New England Patriots as the kings of the division and perhaps even the conference again with Tom Brady back on the saddle. Not so fast my friends.

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Are You Ready for Some Football?

How's that for a way to kick off the 2009 NFL season?

The defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers needed to overtime Thursday night to survive the Tennessee Titans at Heinz Field and Ben Roethlisberger had to engineer another clutch drive to pull off the win, just like he did in Super Bowl XLIII. Santonio Holmes once again had a big game and put up identical numbers to his Super Bowl MVP performance --nine catches for 131 yards and a touchdown.

So now we have a full slate of games scheduled for Sunday, with the San Diego Chargers and Oakland Raiders closing out Week 1 on Monday night, and if that game or any of the ones being played on Sunday rival last week's college football Monday night spectacular between Miami and Florida State, we're in for an incredible season.

Obviously, there are a lot if intriguing story lines involving quarterbacks, starting with Tom Brady looking to show everybody that his knee his fine and he is the same quarterback who threw 50 touchdown passes and led the Patriots to an unbeaten regular season two years ago.

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Tough to Hide from the Turk

Saturday around the NFL was akin to to April 15th for the rest of us. Just like that dreaded tax deadline, the final cutdown day for all 32 teams is the least fun day of the year for all involved.

From the coaches' perspective, this is the part of the job they hate, when they have to tell players they have come to know and respect that they just don't fit into their plans and they need to turn in their playbook and uniform.

Many times it's a young kid fresh out of college who gave everything throughout training camp, maybe even fought through injury to try and earn a spot but there just wasn't any room at his position. Other times it's a seasoned veteran like Zach Thomas, beloved by Miami Dolphins fans young and old, who isn't ready to hang up the cleats just yet but a team like the Kansas City Chiefs couldn't find a place for his battered body, so now he has to hold out hope that there's a team out there willing to give him one more shot.

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