The Revolution Was Televised ... on ABC

1453. 1644. 1917. And now, Halloween 2009.

Like the Byzantine, Ming and Romanov empires, all good things must come to an end. Such was the case for the Trojan Dynasty that has ruled the Pac-10 since 2002.

In retrospect, it was easy to see that this was a rebuilding year for USC. It lost most of its defensive stalwarts, including an entire linebacking corps that went among the first 38 picks in the NFL draft. It lost its star quarterback, who now hot dogs it for the New York Jets. It even lost its offensive coordinator to a rival Pac-10 school.

But because it's USC, it was assumed that it'd go on like business as usual ... until Saturday night, when the Oregon Ducks formally pronounced the fin de siecle with a resounding quack.

(Continue to BCS Guru)

Read more »

Oregon's Job Is Not Complete

Oregon dominated the Trojans 47-20. The Ducks got a Freshman QB in Matt Barkley at home, but so did Ohio State, California and Notre Dame. Oregon did what they were supposed to do and that was beat a USC team that is inexperienced and trying to find their way.

This was a very impressive win by the Ducks. Oregon’s Chip Kelly is in his first season as the head coach and he accomplished what Jim Tressel, Charlie Weis and Jeff Tedford who are coaches with much more experience could not do and that is defeat the Trojans when you have them at home. USC was ranked #5 in the BCS and this victory should result in Oregon climbing up the BCS Standings.

(Continue to Inside the Pac-10)

Read more »

Iowa Lacks Style ... And Substance?

After the 2001 season, the BCS forced the computers remaining in the BCS formula to remove margin of victory (MOV) as an element in their respective algorithms. The reason, ostensibly, is that it discourages teams from running up the score since they wouldn't benefit from it.

Well, they should've asked all the pollsters to remove their eyeballs so they can only check the scores in Braille.

We're more than halfway done in the 2009 season, and the BCS Standings provides a clear picture: Style points matter. Why else would Iowa be ranked fourth despite being the near-unanimous choice as the top team by the computers?

(Continue to BCS Guru)

Read more »

Coaches Poll Irregularities

It's been a big story this week - the Coaches and Harris polls have a bunch of teams ranked ahead of teams that beat them. Penn State ahead of Iowa, Oklahoma State ahead of Houston, etc. I think most everyone agrees that these polls have major, serious flaws that cut right to the heart of the credibility of the BCS. But there's more to this story and these numbers, as usual. Let's add some context cake to the rage-flavored frosting, shall we? (The statistics that follow all track the Coaches rankings of Week 4 in each of the BCS seasons. So basically through September.)

	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09
# of undefeated Top 25 teams	16	17	17	20	17	20	19	15	14	20	18	12
# of one-loss Top 25 teams	9	8	8	5	8	5	6	10	11	6	7	13

No team with two losses has ever been ranked in the Top 25 in week 4 in the BCS era. And this year, there are more one-loss teams in the poll at this time than ever. What's important about this is that it means that there's more opportunities for teams to be ranked ahead of teams that beat them. But just because something is available doesn't mean it has to be taken, right? Right. The Coaches aren't forced to rank teams that lost higher. But the next important thing to realize is that this isn't the first time they've done so: this has happened every single year of the BCS (except 2007).

(Continue to The National Championship Issue)

Read more »

September Wasteland, Cont.

Pro football fans like to thumb their noses at college football for a number of reasons. But when it comes to mismatches, they do have a point.

Yes, they do play those meaningless exhibition games in the NFL (at most papers, including the ones that I worked for, it's verboten to call them "preseason" games), but once the real deal gets started, it's serious stuff. Every game immediately attains a whole lot of meaning, and you have to take even the Detroit Lions and Oakland Raiders seriously every week.

Not so in college football. Not in September, for the most part, anyway.

(Continue to BCS Guru)

Read more »

USC Moves Up BCS Standings

Oklahoma's loss as expected dropped the Sooners out of the top 10, but the team that made the most of the first weekend is USC.

In the latest BCS standings (as simulated by the Guru), the Trojans vaulted past Texas into the No. 2 spot. In fact, USC has a pretty healthy margin on the Longhorns and may threaten Florida at No. 1 with a victory at Ohio State on Saturday.

The Trojans are currently third in the two polls, but are ranked first (Sagarin), second (Massey MOV) and third (Billingsley) in the three BCS computers that have released its ratings. Among 38 computer rankings, USC has a median ranking of 2.

(Continue to BCS Guru)

Read more »

What to Do About BYU?

In 1984, BYU went 13-0 and won the national championship - the last consensus national title for any school not in the current BCS conferences. What's largely forgotten is that the Cougars played only four teams that finished with a winning record, the best being Air Force's 8-4.

That won't be the case this year.

Should BYU go undefeated this regular season, its 13th game should be for the BCS national title, because its schedule would be worthy for it.

After upsetting Oklahoma, 14-13, at Cowboys Stadium last night, the Cougars should be ranked in the top five of the polls, the most critical element comprising the BCS standings formula. If they fail to crack the top five, then the Mountain West Conference's mounting grievances against the BCS will have the fiercest argument yet.

(Continue to BCS Guru)

Read more »