Sunday, August 19, 2012

Cabrera's Suspension is a Blessing in Disguise for Posey's MVP Chances



 Melky Cabrera’s drug scandal will likely overshadow any success the Giants and Posey have over the next few weeks. But for Posey, this situation couldn’t get any sweeter. It might sound silly, but Cabrera’s suspension is a blessing in disguise for his MVP chances.

Cabrera was seemingly a top five MVP candidate prior to his suspension. His power numbers don’t match up with Posey’s but he was second in baseball in batting average at the time of the suspension. Basically, Posey has a chance to prove the baseball world wrong. The suspension will do one of two things: Open up another spot for another contender. Two, his absence will provide Posey the chance to build his legacy.

How?

Experts, writers, insiders, and fans practically flushed the Giants’ playoff hopes down the drain in the wake of Cabrera’s suspension seeing that his loss is too much to sustain for an already punchless offensive, although they’ve shown flashes of late. This creates a nearly perfect situation for Posey to prove just how valuable he is to the Giants. The baseball world has already counted the Giants out, but if he leads them to the postseason, the amount of credit he would get would be unimaginable simply because he beat the odds.

Entering play Sunday, the All-Star catcher remains among the best in the National League. His stats since the All-Star break haven’t dipped even the slightest amount, while his overall stats continue to climb the leader boards. He’s second in the N.L in batting average (.333), third in on-base percentage (.409), third in slugging percentage (.550), and sixth in WAR (5.3). Throw in the fact that the Giants remain in the playoff hunt, you might be looking at the frontrunner.

MVP’s are generally picked from winning teams. And the likes of David Wright, Ryan Braun, and possibly Andrew McCutchen might not have much working in their favor as their respective teams are slowly trickling out of the playoff chase.

However, Posey won’t be able to take home the MVP award with a tad bit of help from his fellow teammates, particularly Hunter Pence. See, pitchers aren’t even going to bother pitching to Posey if Pence falls in the pedestrian category. Though, if Pence hits, Posey won’t be get the walk treatment. It’s really that simple.

The Pirates’ Andrew McCutchen’s walk treatment has already began, and in result, his stats have plummeted. Since August began, he’s hitting just .262/.387/.410 with just two home runs. While his recent dry spell isn’t entirely due to the fact that the Pirates don’t have much protection around him, it’s a big factor. To put things into perspective, Pirates’ cleanup hitters have hit for an abyssal .266/.315.450 triple slash this season. Why face an MVP candidate when you can face something in the realm of Garrett Jones or Pedro Alvarez?

Posey sat in a similar position before the arrival of Pence. Cabrera had always batted in front of him. However, the fifth spot (behind him), was anything but productive. Pablo Sandoval bounced between the DL and the fifth spot, and Brandon Belt even received a chance to staple that spot in the order, but until Pence, there wasn’t a clear picture as to who would be in that spot everyday. The stats are there too, as hitters who have hit in the fifth spot for the Giants are hitting an atrocious .249/.295/.377. The worst part---only three home runs have come out of that spot. Yes, this does include Pence’s short stint too.

Posey is already experiencing the benefits of having Pence batting behind him, as he’s hit north of .400 since having him behind him.

Posey already has the comeback player of the year award in the bag, but he’s sniffing a much bigger award. His success will be a benefactor of Pence’s success.

What path will he and Pence take? Time will only tell.

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